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Poll: Darling Would Win a Recall Election; Three Republicans Vulnerable

Daily Kos polls says most Republican lawmakers would be safe if a recall election started today.

 

Leaders of an effort to recall state Sen. Alberta Darling (R-River Hills) may be optimistic about their chances to unseat the senator, but a poll released Tuesday indicates they may have an uphill battle on their hands.

The poll by the Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling says Darling would win in a recall election with 52 percent of the vote to 44 percent to an unnamed Democratic opponent. The poll has a 2 percent margin of error.

Darling has represented the 8th District, which includes includes Shorewood, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, River Hills, Mequon, Thiensville, Menomonee Falls and Germantown since 1992, and won by a slim margin against Democrat Sheldon Wasserman in 2008.

Daily Kos is a liberal website that supports the recall of Wisconsin's Republican senators as a way for Democrats to retake control of the Senate.

Recalls of eight Republican senators are driven by backlash over the passage of the budget repair bill, which eliminates most collective bargaining for public employees, by the Republican-controlled Senate and Assembly.

Those behind the recall of Darling still need to gathered more than 20,000 signatures by May 2 to force an election. Organizers have not said how many signatures they've gathered so far.

Efforts are under way to recall 14 state senators, including six of Wisconsin's 14 Democratic senators.

The poll looked at the eight Republican senators who are eligible for recall this spring.

The poll asked participants whether they would vote for the incumbent senator in a recall or an unnamed Democratic opponent.

According to so-called "topline" results of the poll, only three incumbent Republicans appear to be in danger of losing a recall election.

The results included:

  • Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse), who trails a generic Democrat by 55 percent to 41 percent.
  • Sen. Randy Hopper, (R-Fond du Lac), who trails 49 percent to 44 percent.
  • Sen. Luther Olsen (R-Ripon), who trails by 49 percent to 47 percent.

In addition to Darling, four other Republicans have leads over their Democrats opponents if a recall was held today, according to the poll.

  • Sen. Rob Cowles (R-Green Bay) leads 45 percent to 43 percent.
  • Sen. Sheila Harsdorf (R-River Falls) leads 48 percent to 44 percent.
  • Sen. Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin) leads 56 percent to 34 percent.
  • Sen. Glenn Grothman (R-West Bend) leads 60-32

Candidates are allowed a year in office before a recall election can be forced, so, Gov. Scott Walker and 11 of the 19 State Senate Republicans are safe from any recall attempts.

Wasserman said he would consider running against Darling in a recall election. He lost in 2008 by 1,000 votes or 1 percent.

Daily Kos did not poll in the Democratic districts.

Do you believe the poll results? Tell us in the comments.

Bewildered

12:10 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Did the Daily Kos also poll the Democratic Senators up for recall?

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Craig Johnson

1:03 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Polls against unnamed generic opponents provide little insight. In a low-turnout recall election results will depend on how hard each side works. If Sen. Darling keeps cancelling appearances in her district, like she did at town halls in WFB and Menomonee Falls this past weekend, people will begin to wonder why. One reason may be that she needs to travel to DC for fundraisers with out of state lobbyists, which she's apparently doing this week.

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Kiernan

10:40 am on Sunday, March 27, 2011

Couldn't have said it better; polls are nothing more than a popularity contest -- and a popularity contest with only one known contestant aren't much good. Come back with poll results when Sen. Darling has a flesh-and-blood- opponent, not some shadowy " opponent to be named later."

The concensus on the street seems to be that"North Shore Nancy . . . errr, Senator Darling has lost touch with her constituents and isn't voting in their best interests. A growing number of voters -- including many republicans -- tell me they're ashamed of the seceptive and disingenuous brand of politics she has come to represent. I feel confident the tinking people of the SD8 will realize this and vote for change,

Nate

1:26 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Last week I was getting 100 signatures/hour in Menomenee Falls.

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Nate

1:30 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Also, signature gatherers -- we MUST get the email info of people who sign so that we can email them and remind them to vote when the time comes.

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Robin Darden

1:33 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Why aren't we hearing about 1). The chances for relection of the Democratic senators if recalled and 2). The positive actions that those of us who are in support of our incumbent Senator can take to help him/her retain his/her office. It's easy to sign a petition when you're unhappy, we want to hear what we can do to HELP the senators we elected and continue to support to them during these recall efforts. What we should NOT due is look at these imperfect polls and think we don't have to do anything.

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Nate

1:41 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

She is cutting $1.8 million from Whitefish Bay Schools. Not cool, dude.

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Nate

1:44 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Darling is cutting $2.7 million from Germantown Schools. But Walker is flying around the state in a taxpayer funded plane telling us all how broke we are.

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BWEB

1:58 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

If you care about working families, you will recall the republican senators. If you support the corportate elite, you will vote to keep them in office.

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BWEB

1:59 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

If you want to keep public education, you will recall the republican senators. If you want our schools to be privatized, you will vote to keep them in office.

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Bewildered

2:21 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Boy, this poll is not good news for Recall Darling, esp. since conducted by Daily Kos, a liberal website that suports Republican recall. To say its invalid because its "against unnamed opponents" ignores the fact that many (dare I say, most) of the public are aware that Sheldon is running hard to get the potential Democratic nominee if the recall is successful and, perhaps even more telling, that any election most likely be a vote for or against Darling, notso much for a Democrat. Before discounting, be careful one doesn't chose and pick the polls they want to use in agruements. You can't praise the negative Walker polls and ignore this poll. I don't think there will be much movement in this poll because I can't fathom there are many "undecideds" left on this issue. You would have to living under a rock not to be aware of what's going on and what each side is saying (pint, TV, mouth to mouth, protests, blogs and sites like this, etc.).

If this was a national race and the polls looked like this, The DNC (or RNC if numbers looked as bad for their side) would pull support and move onto a diff. arena. Thats what both National Committees did in '08 and '10. While I am sure the Darling Recall movement will press ahead, looks like it maybe a tough road and perhaps efforts should shift to Republican targets more vulnerable (as pointed out in the Kos poll).

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235301

2:25 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

BWEB: If you want to accept union enforced mediocrity in education, by all means please vote the liberal/union agenda. You do realize the quality of most private/parochial education far exceeds the quality of public education? Private/parochial education are far better at maximizing education dollars than public schools(certainly one aspect of this is not having to provide certain services). The unions do NOT want you to have choice as it will expose their agenda as a fraud. Unions no longer work to protect members rights rather they work to enforce that everyone is treated the same. Anyone that has had to work in a union environment knows UNION=ENFORCED MEDIOCRITY. They are one of the great forces in our loss of competitiveness in the US(certainly not the only one). I'm all for our children having a choice and making the public school teachers compete against the private school teachers. What are the public school teachers afraid of?

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Mike

8:36 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

235301- You are wrong about unions. Mine works very hard to promote the professional development of its members and to increase to quality of the product its members provide.

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Dave Koven

10:57 am on Tuesday, April 5, 2011

235301 What are public school teachers afraid of? They're afraid of going back to a time when their working conditions were humiliating (e.g. you can't be married, have a beard, be seen having a beer in public, being mandated to attend church, having to clean the school and chop wood for the room heater, and be boarded and housed at the sufferance of the parents in their district.) As for having a say-so about their job and/or educational philosophy...forget about it. No one except the desperate, or those who became teachers like many become priests and take vows of poverty and chastity, would take the job. Most positive innovation in education comes from the bottom up because educational leaders, by and large, are afraid to "rock the boat". How is a teacher's Masters Degree different from an administrator's? The teacher's union allows them to be creative. For an administrator, it's politically dangerous. The union gives a voice to teachers who would be voiceless without it. It allows the community to take advantage of the expensive educations that teachers are required to get. Teachers are not magicians. They attempt to teach whoever comes through the schoolhouse door. Not every child comes to school to learn, and not every parent will back the school when their child acts up. If you want the best and the brightest, you get what you pay for. How much is someone worth who is the gatekeeper to the American dream for your child? Dave Koven

al campos

2:29 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Don't know when these polls were taken but I will have to say they are not current. The latest count on her recall is over half way there already and it has only been on going for a week or so now. The deal is not done until the count is in.

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Bewildered

2:41 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

This article is not about recall signatures, its about election voters. And its your own poll.

Look at recall election results in WI and nationaly in the past. Reality says its very hard to translate collecting signatures into enough votes to oust an incumbent. Not saying you won't succeed, but history (and the Kos poll) are not on your side.

Bewildered

2:54 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Also, if recall is successful in forcing an new election, not sure Wasserman with his "Tax and Spend "history (when in the Assembly, he voted 100% with Doyle on every tax increase) would be the best Democratic canidate in these times of budget responsibility. Perhaps a "Chris Abele" type canidate who is an "outsider" and doesn't have the Doyle tax increase baggage would be a better canidate, if it gets that far.

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Jenny Heyden

3:20 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

the key line in this story is the last line. "Daily Kos did not poll in the Democratic districts."
OK. I can live with the story - it tells me about real estate more than anything!

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Kiernan

4:24 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

No, I don't believe the poll results. First, it doesn't mirror the anti-darling sentiment I've encountered while gathering recall signatures. Secondly, I don't see how one can conduct a "scientific" poll without even knowing who her opponent will be.

One must remember that the Darling camp is now in damage control mode. They have to put some propaganda out there to show that they are unphased. Trust me, they're not only phased, they're reeling with the certainty of a bitter recall election this summer looming large.

Let's remember that Darling hardly has a mandate in the 8th SD. She eeked out a victory in 2008 by a narrow 1,007 votes. Given the backlash over her support of Walker's union-busting legislation, this pundit says she'd lose hands down.

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Bewildered

4:54 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Kierman:

First, the poll is not Darling camp "propaganda", it was conducted by a LIBERAL polling company. Second, good luck winning an election with 44%. Third, could it be that the pollsters are reaching the silent majority that do support Darling (the 52%), but just have not been as vocal over the past 3 weeks. Not everyone who has an opinion on Alberta is taking to the streets.

Again, this is your own poll. How about a little reality check here. I can understand your anger, but its not a Republican/Darling poll, its yours So there!

Kiernan

4:40 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Another way to read the Daily Kos poll results is this; 44 percent of voters would vote for ANOYONE but Darling!

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Nate

5:06 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Obama easily won this district for goodness sake. Sandy Pasch would absolutely destroy Darling. Republicans will never stop wrecking this country -- our only option is to force them to stop hurting America.

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Bewildered

5:18 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Be careful with your arguements. One could say Darling won in spite of an Obama victory. Either Darling was that strong to win even in an Democratic year ('08) or Wasserman was that poor a canidate. And is Pasch now planning to run against Darling? If not, that statement has no bearing on the discusion.

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Nate

5:28 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

We want to keep the republicans guessing about who is running so they can't start smear campaigns. Darling only won in 2008 because we didn't yet know how evil she was.

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Nate

5:30 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

"Only eight nations refused to adopt International Declaration of Human Rights which states unions are a basic human right; not only the Soviet bloc, but also apartheid South Africa -- which opposed the pledge of racial equality -- and Saudi Arabia -- which objected to the pledge of religious toleration. Totalitarian societies ban unions and collective bargaining rights. Not a club that good Americans should want to join!"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-ravitch/eight-civics-lessons-from_b_835201.html?ref=fb&src=sp

Kiernan

5:22 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Okay, explain this; Darling defeated Wasserman by a mere 1 percent of the vote in November, 2008. Why would she now enjoy a commanding margin now?

Again, I place no stock in a popularity poll that compares an incumbent with an "unknown candidate."

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Bewildered

5:47 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Again, 1% in an overwhelming Democratic year is quite an accomplishment. Her stregnth or her opponent's weakness. Your choice.

And for the last time, my goodness, this is your own poll, not one of those phony polls done by evil Republicans. By the way, if you know anything about polling, it is common on both sides to poll against an "unknown" canidate, if no actual canidate is announced The President does this on a regular basis.

Finaly, this election, if it happens, will basicly be a vote on Darling and her platform, so it really wont matter who is running against her. Your own liberal polling orig. knows this and that's why they did the poll. 52% support Darling. I am sure they, like you, are unhappy with the results. But hey, ITS YOUR OWN POLL. If the poll had come out the other way, I can just image the tone of these comments.

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Donna

8:49 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Kiernan, you are absolutely correct. No one is going to take a stance when the incumbent is unknown. If you're out and about in the community, you know that this recall is real and I cannot ignore that Alberta is MIA. She's probably brushing up so she can actually "speak" at an event instead of regurgitate words given to her.

Kiernan

5:33 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Look, a poll that compares Darling's chances against an as yet unnamed challenger has NO value.

Much depends on who the challenger is and how he/she addresses the key issues. If, for example, Russ Feingold moved into the district to challenge Alberta, do you think the margin would still be 52/44%, I think not.

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Bewildered

5:58 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Your just getting silly now. Feingold. Really? Why not JFK?

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Dennis Allen

9:08 am on Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Bewildered : Please go back and re-read the last line in the article. Or just go to Jenny 's posting above. Maybe that'll help with your perception of what this article is saying. Enjoy your day. Get out and vote.

Kiernan

5:35 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Doesn't Alberta have a picture that was taken this decade? Her uniquitous headshot is so old the photographer must have been Matthew Brady!

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Bewildered

5:52 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

To Dave, as my son says: yaok, Pasch maybe running. (thats a sarcastic remark, if you don't know).

And to Kierman, way to stay on topic. Getting a little desparate? Too bad its not a Rep. poll,

Kiernan

6:34 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Ummm, I think you missed my point about Feingold. No, I doubt Russ would be interested in running against Alberta. But WHO her opponent happens to be has everything in the world to do with the division of the vote.

If, for example, I were to run against Alberta, the vote would likely be lopsidely in her favor -- maybe 95% - 5%. If a more credible challenger emerged, be it Russ feingold, JFK, or Sheldon Wasserman -- the split would be entirely different.

The pont is this; the Daily Kos poll is indicative of nothing. You can't hold a popularity contest with only one contestant.

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Bewildered

7:32 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

While of course the opponent matters, but far less in a recall election that is basicly a re-do on the candidate that was been recalled. By the way, I would love her to run against Sheldon. If he couldn't beat her in the Obama landslide, bring it on. His record of voting 100% (yes, 100%) in favor of all Doyle tax increases will give Alberta all the ammunition to make the campaign about taxes and paint Wasserman as a "tax and spend" democrat. Would much more fear an Abele type canidate who could claim to be an "outsider" who is financially responsible. Sheldon can't do that.

Kiernan

6:37 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Anybody like anagrams? "Recall Alberta Darling" anagrams to "Really bad call-girl rental."

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Bewildered

7:53 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

You know Kierman, some times you almost use rational arguments, but the you come back with unbelievably immature comments like the above. Calling Darling a "bad call-girl". If this is your humor... Just how old are you. I'm sure you will be glad to know this is my last response to you. Don't want to waste any more time.

And by the way, it's your own patty's poll.

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Nate

9:06 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

My hunch is that DC Dems want to grab the three easiest seats and call it a game (conveniently this poll shows only three seats where generic dems hold big leads). But the difference between left and right is that the left is bottom up rather than top down. We folks on the bottom tell the top what to do. And the DC Dems are hearing us loud and clear over here in the Northshore. We've had enough of Darling.

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Nate

3:55 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Looking at the raw data of the poll: First Darling’s district is the largest one (by far) but has only 1333 survey respondents while all other Senate districts others have 2200 or more. Odd.

Next, there are differences between their reported numbers and the raw data. For example, they report 93 of 1333 African American responses (7%) while in the raw data they provide there are only 80 African American responses (again out of 1333). Moreover, this district has roughly 15% AA population. They report 25% support for Darling among AAs, but the raw data shows only 20% support. There is a similar discrepancy with 18-29 years olds. They report 106 responses but the raw data has 40. And there should be double the number of surveyed people in this demographic.

I’ll admit I’m not a seasoned pollster, and maybe there’s a simple explanation. But since the total counts in the raw data agrees with the posted count (1333) I assume I’m looking at the same data as the polling firm. recallalbertadarling.org has sent an email asking for an explanation.
http://recallalbertadarling.org/wp/

Jenny Heyden

10:16 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

New poll happening tonight. Have you gotten it? 3/15/11. Neighbor did - I'm sharing the email with you in its entirety, no analysis or comment.

"---------- Forwarded message ----------

For what it's worth, I just was called by the following number: 1-414-292-9451. It was a national researcher... According to the caller, it was Call Research, from Salt Lake City. When I asked, the survey administrator identified herself as "Odess -- I mean Michelle Jackson." This is the website I was given (again, when I asked): wwwdotventuredatadotcom. I called the number back and that was the name of the voice recording.

The purpose of the call was, at first, to gauge opinion on a potential recall of Alberta Darling. But it got into very push poll type questions towards the end:

-- Does the fact that the recall is being funded by out-of-state unions affect your opinion?

-- Does the fact that union sympathizers have given Darling death threats change your opinion?

-- Does the fact that the highest public employee in Madison is a bus driver making $157K / year change your opinion?

-- Does the fact that the union used collective bargaining power to get viagra change your opinion?"

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Bewildered

10:32 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Typical push poll tactics that both sides use ( I have recieved similiar poll calls over the past weeks from both sides) and that I hate. That being said, I truely doubt the the poll in this story, by Daily Kos, a admitted liberal website supporting Recall of Republicans, used the type of obviously right wing biased questions quoted in the comment from Jenny Heyden. Wrong party.... which makes the Kos poll even more interesting.

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Mira Bluesky

10:36 pm on Tuesday, March 15, 2011

I would like to recall that 30-year- old picture of Senator Darling. Can she provide something a bit closer to her 2011 self? I'm just saying.

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Nate

9:15 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Hey 'bewildered' enjoy your last 44 days in office. If you weren't so afraid of your constituents, you would actually talk to us and know how angry we all are at you (instead jetting off to DC and begging the Koch Bros for more money). It turns out that at your core you are just a deeply bitter old person.

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Bewildered

10:25 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dave, what a strange message. Seeing monsters under your bed? Don't know who you think I am, but I'm a hard working, private sector worker living in the North Shore who unfortunately can't afford "jetting off to DC". You show your true colors attacking those whose opinions differ than yours. Great thing about Patch is comments are voluntary . So , as I said to Kierman after reading his comments. I chose to no longer read and respond to your nasty innane comments. I welcome and enjoy " sparring" with those of you who are civil and factual. Leaves you out. Sure that breaks your heart so bye.

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Nate

11:12 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Sorry for letting my facts get in the way of your beliefs. 'Bewildered' you are clearly Alberta Darling, and you have been unmasked.

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Bewildered

12:16 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Oh Dave, you got me. Your insightful reasoning has figured out I really am Alberta (be news to my wife and kids). Aren't you the one calling Darling a "bad call-girl"? Yup, that's you. By the way, thru my deep insight, in your messages I have determined that using " anagrams", you are really Wasserman. Nice to meet you, Sheldon.

By the way, I wasn't aware that the dems created public schools. You must be reading the same history that claims the dems invented the internet (maybe you are really Al Gore).

Look out Bob M., you're about to be outed by Dave as really being John McCain.

Silly, silly, silly

Nate

9:30 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The democrats created public schools because they realized that schools should focus on education, not profits and marketing. The republicans have done everything they can to wreck this great public institution (as well as other great inventions like pensions, good jobs, and social security).

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Dave Koven

10:58 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

No matter which party is in office, the schools will not be improved by larger classes, less supplies, and disrespected teachers. People think that schools are predictable, like factories. Kids are not widgets. Often someone will not know how valuable their teachers were to them until many years later. Teachers are being held responsible for far too many variables that are beyond their control. Just about every politician I've ever heard pays lip service to "children being America's most valuable resource", "let's do more FOR THE CHILDREN", and the ever popular, "our children are the future of America". They then turn around and cut funding for schools, and single out teachers as the source of all the problems. Why not cut out the bogus rhetoric and admit that, in reality, society feels that kids are an expensive pain who often don't appreciate what they're given, and I didn't like my teachers so much when I was in school, so why should I give them anything, now that I'm a taxpayer? In truth, education is almost the only thing that offers a child a chance at the American dream. Is this what we really want to cut first? Dave Koven

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Bob McBride

11:55 am on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dave,

They're not the first to receive cuts, they're about the last at this point in time.

Total average compensation for a MPS teacher is over $100,000. Based on the performance of the students in MPS, it's impossible to argue that paying teachers extraordinarily well necessarily produces results.

Just as we shouldn't lay blame totally at the teachers' feet for that sorry performance, we shouldn't give credit for good performance in suburban schools totally to teachers as well. The relative degree of motivation of those students and their families has a lot more to do with it than the $/student of taxpayer money spent.

And while the school system is important, it's not THE most important thing in the world, nor is it immune to the economic realities of that same world.

Nate

12:51 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Bob stop being a troll. So many lies so little time. Teachers already have 16 unpaid furlough days for three years and now they are getting a 20 percent pay cut.

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Bewildered

1:03 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

AH, THE TROLL INSULTS RETURN. Dave must be Pres. of the Anti-Troll union.

Nate

1:01 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Republicans just believe what their authority figures tell them (rich people, powerful people, religious leaders). When people think, the left always wins, which is why republicans hate education.

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Kiernan

10:51 am on Sunday, March 27, 2011

I don't mean to stereotype, but the vast majority of rabic republicans I know do, in fact, unquestioningly believe what others tell them. You'd be surprised how many people out on the street tell me that their beliefs are right because Rush Limbaugh or someone of that ilk tod them so. Come on, people, don't take your marching orders from some self-serving fat-cat. This is a battle between the haves and the have-nots. You'll never become one of the haves by embracing the GOP philosophy. Think for yourselves. Trickle-down economics is a lie. It only makes the righ richer and keeps working folk at the status-quo -- at best.

N. Peske

2:44 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

How many of the angry voters who want her replaced only use cell phones? Did the pollsters call cell phones, or only landlines?

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Bob McBride

3:39 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

I got a call from a different poll the other day on my cellphone. I think you're on a hunting expedition with that one, N.

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Nate

3:53 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Looking at the raw data of the poll: First Darling’s district is the largest one (by far) but has only 1333 survey respondents while all other Senate districts others have 2200 or more. Odd.

Next, there are differences between their reported numbers and the raw data. For example, they report 93 of 1333 African American responses (7%) while in the raw data they provide there are only 80 African American responses (again out of 1333). Moreover, this district has roughly 15% AA population. They report 25% support for Darling among AAs, but the raw data shows only 20% support. There is a similar discrepancy with 18-29 years olds. They report 106 responses but the raw data has 40. And there should be double the number of surveyed people in this demographic.

I’ll admit I’m not a seasoned pollster, and maybe there’s a simple explanation. But since the total counts in the raw data agrees with the posted count (1333) I assume I’m looking at the same data as the polling firm. recallalbertadarling.org has sent an email asking for an explanation.
http://recallalbertadarling.org/wp/

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Edward

7:17 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dave - You are absolutely right. There is a statistical bias here in which you cannot weight every vote equally. There are many confounders in this type of problem. It depends on the population - how many people are there in the immediate vicinity of that area, what are the proportions of self-described Democrats and Republicans, human bias, etc. Again, with this in mind, you shouldn't take this poll too seriously because the margin of error is expected to be very large if they only took one very small sample from a very diverse and large population. If the results are to be believed, then they must conduct more samples throughout the eighth district on multiple days, populations and times of day and perform One-way ANOVA (or multiple t-tests) on the populations to check if the population's means are approximately equal.

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Bewildered

7:46 pm on Wednesday, March 16, 2011

I remain amazed that you are attacking your own polling results (Daily Kos, liberal website supporting the recall of Repubs). Would you be making the same comments if your own pools showed Alberta and the other Repubs. behind? By the way, the threshold for a credtable sample size is 1,000 so the 1,333 respondents easily excees that. And a 2% +/- margin of error is considered small, not large by pollsters. Edward, it sounds like you have a class in stats that covers polling (good for you), so you show know this.

Joe Peterlin

11:18 am on Sunday, March 27, 2011

Kiernan: A college-educated teacher should be able to learn how to use spell check, no? It devalues your socialist forum opinions.

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Kiernan

11:34 am on Sunday, March 27, 2011

I'm normally a fine speller, and will pit my grammatical skills against those of amyone who posts in this forum. I suppose my spelling would be somewhat better today if I were not recovering from surgery and under the influence of Oxycodone.

For what it's worth, your nit-picking criticism seems to be more rooted in disgareement with my views than dissatisfaction with my typing.

Kiernan

11:35 am on Sunday, March 27, 2011

I'm normally a fine speller, and will pit my grammatical skills against those of anyone who posts in this forum. I suppose my spelling would be somewhat better today if I were not recovering from surgery and under the influence of Oxycodone.

For what it's worth, your nit-picking criticism seems to be more rooted in disgareement with my views than dissatisfaction with my typing.

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Joe Peterlin

12:42 pm on Sunday, March 27, 2011

Best wishes for a speedy recovery from your surgery! Sorry about the "nit-picking", but it's just not that difficult. Just saying that opinions, whether I agree or disagree, are more credible when expressed clearly. I'm sincere about my best wishes for a speedy recovery and perhaps you would serve yourself and your cause more effectively when you recover. Careful with that Oxycodone and watch out for balance issues.

Kiernan

12:48 pm on Sunday, March 27, 2011

Thanks, Joe, for your thoughtful wishes. Didn't mean to be so edgy, but, frankly, I can't remember a time when I've been in more constant pain. Oxycodone helps, but it's far from the ideal. I'm either in a semi-coherent stupor or in agony. Yes, balance issues have become apparent.

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