Presidential, Senate Races Both a Dead Heat, New Poll Says
Marquette University Law School's newest poll puts the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney and Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race as too close to call.
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The presidential race is a dead heat in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.
President Barack Obama has 49 percent of the support of likely voters polled, while Republican Mitt Romney has 48 percent.
"The candidates are separated by fractions of percentages," noted Professor Charles Franklin, who oversees the poll for the university.
The first presidential debate had a signficant impact on the respondants, he added. Just two weeks ago, Obama led Romney by 14 points; 54 to 40 percent, but among those who watched the first debate, Romney took the lead by two points, 50 to 48. Obama retains a wide margin by those who did not watch the debate, 50 to 42 percent.
"Rarely has a debate produced such a large movement in the polls," Franklin said in a written release. "President Obama held a steady lead, but now the race is a pure tossup, in large measure because of the first debate."
Who will we send to Washington?
When it comes to the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Tommy Thompson, there's also a tie.
Thompson edges Baldwin by a point - 46 to 45 percent, but it's too close to call it anything other than another dead heat.
"The difference is three respondents, not percent, people," said broadcaster Mike Gousha, who, along with Franklin, released the poll results as part of MU's year-long polling project.
Last month, Baldwin lead Thompson by nine points, a complete turn-around from the August poll when Thompson was the one in the lead by nine points. Two weeks ago, Baldwin's lead narrowed to just four points.
The difference seems to be in the advertising, Franklin noted during the presentation.
"It would seem the more recent negative ads against Baldwin are working where Thompson already suffered a month of negative advertising," he continued. "It is convenient to say ads drive a lot of this, but now we have evidence."
Franklin pointed specifically at ads that ask residents if Baldwin is too liberal for Wisconsin and if Thompson is working for them. The poll data revealed that for Baldwin, the ads are making a difference.
Two weeks ago, respondents were split pretty evenly at 45 percent each for agreeing and disagreeing that Baldwin is too liberal. Now, though, that number has moved further apart to 48 percent agree and 41 percent disagree.
That same poll had residents agreeing at 49 percent that Thompson doesn't work for them and disagreeing at a rate of 42 percent. Today's poll results see a slight tightening, with those figures moving to 48 percent agree and 41 percent disagree.
What about the running mates?
Before the single vice presidential debate on Oct. 11, Vice President Joe Biden had a 49 percent favorable rating over a 41 percent unfavorable rating. Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican VP candidate, had a 46 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable rating.
After the debate, though, Biden's rating percentages flipped a bit with voters giving him a 44 percent favorable versus a 47 percent unfavorable rating.
Ryan, on the other hand, did better among voters after the debate.He came in at 50 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable.
Not surprisingly, Franklin noted, voters who identify with a party each thought their candidate came out on top. But perhaps the candidates should take a closer look at Independents; they thought Ryan did better than Biden, 53 to 39 percent, respectively.
The latest poll included 870 likely voters from Oct. 11 to Oct. 14 over the phone with live interviewers. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.
But do we like them?
The new poll used data from 1,007 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.2 percent to answer questions about favorable ratings for the presidential candidates. Franklin said the poll has been using registered voters for these questions throughout the year.
Overall, the president continues to edge out his challenger when it comes to how voters see him, with a 52 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable rating. Romney's favorable/unfavorable ratings sit at about 46 and 48 percent, respectively.
The next Marquette University poll - and last before the election - will be released Oct. 31.
Jim Aspen
12:45 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Slight Romney Edge: Momentum Continues
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/330684/slight-romney-edge-momentum-continues-stanley-kurtz
H.E. Pennypacker
12:58 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
GALLUP: R 51% O 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx:
Michael McClusky
1:05 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
I wonder what the presidential poll would look like if it included Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. I bet you that it wouldn't be a tie.
Keith Best
6:19 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
A vote for Gary Jouhnson is a vote for Obama, and we can't afford 4 more years of socialism/ marxism.
Michael McClusky
6:38 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote away from the two corrupt major political parties. Don't vote for either the Republicans or Democrats until we have campaign finance reform!
morninmist
1:52 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Great news.
TheNewDeal @TheNewDeal
GALLUP: Unemployment Rate Down to 7.3% in Mid-October, Down from 7.8% in Sept. http://bit.ly/Qs2gLo Rt #Obama2012 #p2 #tcot
James R Hoffa
4:26 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@morninmist -
Only you would be applauding as great news that even more Americans dropped out of the work force after having given up looking for work because the Obama economy is so very poor and jobs deficient.
It isn't working!
Time for real hope and change!
ROMNEY/RYAN/THOMPSON 2012!!!
Walker
7:59 am on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Do you make that same claim about Wisconsin's unemployment #'s? Or do you use a different measuring stick?
mainstreet
8:49 am on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Here are some "official" numbers, if you care to believe anything coming out of the current administration.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm#.UIAIE2eHrKQ
Steve ®
1:54 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Does this poll once again over sample democrats by 11%? If so it's going to be a landslide for Romney.
Heather Asiyanbi
2:37 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@Steve - Respondents self-identified as Democrats at 31%; Republicans 28% and Independents were about 35% - sorry I can't be more concrete about the Independents - I was typing as fast as I could and missed that one statistic.
morninmist
2:26 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
I have been canvassing for Tammy on the weekends. Lots of good feedback.
Go Tammy.
WisPolitics links @wispoliticsfeed
ELECTION: Baldwin poll has her up 48-44 on Thompson http://bit.ly/Xp2tSe
Steve ®
2:30 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
What a wonderful poll you link. Totally unbiased, just outstanding here is their feature page
http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=277926
you really set yourself up for failure
morninmist
2:48 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
The only failure is the TeaGOP.
Steve ®
3:45 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Change the subject
James R Hoffa
4:24 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@morninmist -
The only failures are the liberal blue-fisters!
morninmist
2:47 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
some political humor.
Ban T-shirts @BanTshirts
Ladies, Mitt has got your back: http://bit.ly/T0H8JO #tshirt #debate
Retweeted by SnarkyProgressive#47
James R Hoffa
4:22 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@morninmist -
That isn't very funny.
morninmist
12:32 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Well, we will have to disagree once again.
Gregory Kluck
3:46 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
I thought it was very funny. I'm GOP but the jokes just seem to write themselves. If you don't want stuff like this to fuel the left, then don't say stupid crap. There has been a lot of gaffs from the right of late, unfortunately.
FreeThought Troy
2:25 pm on Friday, November 2, 2012
I saw a conservative bumper sticker a few months ago that was so funny, I wanted one - it was that good.
It was a picture of the President and next to it was "FIB"
Hilarious!!!
That is the best bumpersticker I have seen in years.
morninmist
2:56 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
One Wisconsin Now @onewisconsinnow
Sample in MU Law poll was 41% very conservative/conservative & 22% very liberal/liberal #wiunion #wipolitics
James R Hoffa
4:21 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@morninmist -
Are you calling Heather A a liar in her response to Steve ® above?
morninmist
12:33 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
No Hoffa- I am not. It is you who is making the vile suggestion.
John Feia
3:29 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Its nice to pick out one poll that favors your wishes (i,e,: Gallup) but here are the Real Clear Politics Polling averages. No Bias, just an average of all the major polls (including the beloved FOX poll);
Poll Date Sample MoE (R) (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/7 - 10/16 -- -- 47.4 47 Romney +0.4
Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1500 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/16 2700 LV 2.0 51 45 Romney +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/11 - 10/16 931 LV 3.5 45 47 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 - 10/13 923 LV 3.5 46 49 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 - 10/11 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1
John Feia
3:30 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
There seems to be only one outlyer here...
James R Hoffa
4:19 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
@John Feia -
Do all the polls you cite pertain solely to the state of Wisconsin? Hoffa believes that is the limited scope of the MU poll referenced in this story.
So, why are you trying to compare apples to oranges?
And the MU Poll proved to be dead on with the Walker recall election, if memory serves.
Wisconsin is a dead-even battleground state and Romney is still up nationally!
James R Hoffa
4:28 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Romney is either closing the gap or leading in many battle ground states!
There's just no stopping the ROMNEY/RYAN/THOMPSON express - onward to victory for all of America!
John Feia
4:31 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
I was responding to this post:
"H.E. Pennypacker
12:58 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
GALLUP: R 51% O 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx:";
There was no comparison being made in the manner that you described.
There is no doubt that the races for President and Senate are a dead heat in WI. It wasn't my contention to dispute this.
Keith Best
6:21 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
I have the same feeling about this election as I did when the Packers went into Houston, and we all know how that turned out.
Michael McClusky
10:36 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012
A Gary Johnson victory, right? LOL
Nick Poulos
5:16 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Now is the time to turn off the TV; unplug the DVR; and think about what really is at issue. Isn't it is the moral fibre of our Nation. Do any of us want the divisiveness and self-centeredness of this crop, or cohort, of so-called Republicans. This is the group that signed a PLEDGE to stop all progress: and that is the penalty we have paid as a Nation. Obama has the Ship of State re-equipped with a rudder, a working control panel (altho' again, the Republicans and Tea Party want no regulations and are fighting to reverse the many needed, proper regulatory controls being
implemented), and the propeller has us moving forward.
Wisconsin has the rare opportunity to show the Nation the correct path. We can reject #Ryan twice in this election. The primary reason is that we need a constructive, giving, and workable social contract. Ryan and Romney will do so much more damage to the nation and the general Good than most people are willing to concede - despite the fact that it is well documented, in all its awfulness.
We need a social contract among and between our citizens that is focused upon co-creating a sustainable future for all. A future characterized by the ability for all to flourish. This is not the #Republican way: altho' in all fairness (and as a former life-long Republican) neither Romney nor Ryan are true Republicans.
Bob McBride
5:59 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Better Nick. Now just remember to put an empty line between the paragraphs. It makes it look like you actually put some effort into the process. Keep up the good work. Your progress, while a bit slow, is commendable. We'll get you up to speed with this medium yet.
Now if you don't mind I'm going to go flip on the TV and cue the DVR for the Tammy/Tommy Show. BTW, since you'll no doubt have to take at least a small break from all that thinking you plan on doing to tonight, google "T.A.M.I. Show" when you get a chance and expand your horizons.
Dominus Vobiscum
Craig
1:30 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012
Nick I do not believe you are as ignorant as you sound. That said, there is no way in hell we have moved any direction BUT backwards in the past 4 years.
If you took a home equity loan above 100% of the homes value- you would be an idiot. But somehow you think Obaba should do that and call it success. What if he wins? When we hit $20 Trillion of debt- then what?
Maybe you speak Chinese, but most of us don't want to learn.
Nick Poulos
5:20 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Again, we need to reaffirm the Judeo-Christian-Islamic ethic upon which this nation was founded. It was more akin to an Aristotelian and Pauline ethic and social contract.
(this is not a swipe at anyone who is agnostic or atheistic: it is against an immoral ethic).
This ethic that Romney and Ryan hold up is immoral at best: it is an ethic of the godless, greedy, manipulative n self-centered. We may not have as many citizens who worship God as when I grew up in the '50/'60's: but we are not these sleeze-balls the Republicans want us to say that we are. We need to secure our democratic republic which has been under attack ever since the Tea Party stood above ground. We must not take the nation back to 1786 and we cannot allow this immoral ethics of Romney and Ryan to take any deeper root in our psyche or in practice.
The Proper social contract for America is not the atheistic, immoral ethics of Paul Ryan who is a disciple of Ayn Rand; Ryan is married to the uber-wealthy: in hope that regardless, he always will be one of those. It is an Aristotelian Pauline (or, Augustine) ethic. truth, Beauty, Unity, Goodness, Justice, Love: not one of those principles are a part of the republican message or social contract.
We need to uncover the truth, even tho' the Republicans r doing all they can to hide it. Ryan is a dangerous man: more importantly, like Romney he cannot tell the truth: it's all distortions, misdirections, and lies.
re-elect Obama. Reject ryan Twice. Stay the Course
James R Hoffa
5:35 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
@Sleeze-ball Nick Poulos -
Still can't seem to come up with anything new, can you?
It's the same old, same old cut & paste pseudo-intellectual crap that you are constantly throwing around.
Sorry, but the people prefer real answers and solutions - not just empty promises of hope and change.
ROMNEY/RYAN/THOMPSON 2012!!!
Michael McClusky
7:25 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
@Nick At first you said that you were not taking any swipes at atheists, but then you called 'the atheistic, immoral ethics of Paul Ryan' to be wrong. Which is it? You can't have it both ways.
FreeThought Troy
2:34 pm on Friday, November 2, 2012
As much as my concern is to agree with McClusky (c'mon Mike, that's a little funny, right?), I do share some concerns with the gentleman.
Just because Rand was Atheist, does not mean her coo-coo crazy notions are Atheist. Atheists (or Freethinkers) base their phylosophies on reason and evidence. There is plenty of evidence with Atlas Shrugged - evidence that it doesn't work. It's Coo-Coo for Coco Puffs whacky.
Ryan is very Christian. That's fine. Rand was Athiest. That's fine too. The fact they both just happen to believe in the same non scence is not fine.
I am sure if you ask Paul Ryan, he would play off Rand's non believe the same as I am right now.
As much as I agree with your posts about the election, the fact that you have me agreeing with McClusky and Ryan are giving me the heebie jeebies.
Snootch
Michael McClusky
1:14 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012
@FreeThought Troy You are the first person to agree with me on anything on Patch. Wow, that is scary.
John Feia
5:47 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012
Today's WSJ/NBC News/Marist poll for WI (10/15 - 10/17)
President Obama 51%
Governor Romney 45%
yomammy
7:04 am on Friday, October 19, 2012
nbc...yes...they are all about the truth....
den terril
1:57 pm on Friday, November 2, 2012
Please people if you love this country dont vote for Dem and Rep back in office!!! We are going to get more twisted thinking and more BS!! Vote Jill Stien 2012 Green Party go Green Party is any one voting for R.B. in the P&F party
Gregory Kluck
4:24 pm on Friday, November 2, 2012
Jill Stein? green party? No way...too closely linked with the Marxist agenda...sorry, no soup for you!
The Anti-Alinsky
1:51 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012
This just in:
The Anti-Alinsky's boss just informed The Anti-Alinsky that insurance premiums will be going up 12% next year! 12%!!!
If this is change we can count on maybe The Anti-Alinsky should move to a less restrictive country, like Russia!
Bob McBride
2:16 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012
Just quit and go on public assistance. Problem fixed.
yomammy
2:11 pm on Saturday, November 3, 2012
not possible Anti....healthcare is free!!!!!! yay obama!!!!
what, you have a JOB??!?!!?
in that case, you get to pay MORE for less services....
and its only costing us a TRILLION dollars...(to cover 10% of the US...)
Michael McClusky
9:23 am on Sunday, November 4, 2012
Go Gary Johnson!